Despite the seemingly inevitable racist backlash aimed at The Little Mermaid when it was announced, all signs pointed to the movie being one of the year's biggest hits.
Instead, it may be a live-action Disney adaptation that results in a rare loss for the studio. According to Deadline, current projections point to The Little Mermaid earning $300 million - $350 million in North America and only $260 million overseas.
With a reported production cost of $250 million and a massive $140 million global marketing spend, the movie might just manage to break even. However, an eventual global haul of anywhere in the low $400 million range all but guarantees a $20 million loss.
"Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless," one film finance insider tells the trade in a summer which has already seen upcoming titles like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Elemental receive tepid reviews.
Unfortunately, the racist backlash aimed at lead star Halle Bailey in certain countries (Korea, China, France, and Germany are among those named) is believed to be the reason for The Little Mermaid's lower-than-expected international haul. Review bombing has also been an issue, prompting some sites to post warning messages.
The movie may be able to make up for that loss with merchandising and Home Entertainment sales, but that remains to be seen.
Despite the review bombing, both Rotten Tomatoes and CinemaScore tell a very different story from what you might be seeing in other corners of the internet. On the former, it has a 95% Audience Score from verified ticket buyers, while CinemaScore (which polls moviegoers as they leave theaters) has awarded it an A grade.
This weekend, The Little Mermaid is going to face stiff competition from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and it was released in the wake of Fast X, meaning the odds would always be stacked against it.
The Little Mermaid is now playing in theaters.